Lottery tickets are either an idiot tax or a chance to dream.

Damn it, I want to dream BIG!!! …set up a charitable foundation …fund socially responsible start-ups like Mint, Tesla, Kiva, DonorsChoose and Tripit.

Also, I only buy 1 ticket no matter how big the jackpot becomes. Subsequent tickets are all idiot tax. You don’t need them to dream.

Finally, I am NOT the guy from the Bodega.

Even if you have a big idea (I’m building “Expedia” for health services to bring retail purchasing to healthcare, as we see the health insurance market follow the path that pensions took to 401(K) and insurance becoming increasingly unaffordable) the process teaches you to disguise it as a small one, as investors look to stick to what they know or wait to see initial traction packaged nicely into a niche play with a logical acquirer in a discrete tech-focused vertical(disruptive ideas don’t fit so nicely into established silos…per Clay Christensen the best v1s are small, crappy, and differentiated along an access that hasn’t historically mattered in that field).

The focus on established teams with existing connections to the Valley further reinforces the likelihood that you’ll see v2 of an industry insight or technology.

The most likely teams to generate the really big wins are the unproven founders working on the edge of an emerging, but unproven market with lots of dry powder. In this climate, where people are fleeing to safe, low yield options or battening down the hatches are there investors looking to swing for the fences in high risk, high upside opportunity with an unpredictable team?

The implications are that ideas/insights again matter more than track records and that degree of pain matters more than existing registered users for a vitamin product. Are you truly looking for that in an early stage company?